ABSTRACT
Objective: To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes (Ae.) aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Iran due to climate change by the 2070s. Methods: All data relating to the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus worldwide, which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes, were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel file. The effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. Results: The most suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. aegypti are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran, based on the model outputs. The modelling result for suitable ecological niches of Ae. albopictus shows that in the current climatic conditions, the southern half of Iran from east to west, and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this species. In the future, some regions, such as Gilan and Golestan provinces, will have more potential to exist/establish Ae. albopictus. Also, according to the different climate change scenarios, suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the country. The temperature of the wettest season of the year (Bio8) and average annual temperature (Bio1) were the most effective factors in predicting the model for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Conclusions: It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of Iran. The future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.
ABSTRACT
Objective: To determine the significance of temperature, rainfall and humidity in the seasonal abundance of Anopheles stephensi in southern Iran. Methods: Data on the monthly abundance of Anopheles stephensi larvae and adults were gathered from earlier studies conducted between 2002 and 2019 in malaria prone areas of southeastern Iran. Climatic data for the studied counties were obtained from climatology stations. Generalized estimating equations method was used for cluster correlation of data for each study site in different years. Results: A significant relationship was found between monthly density of adult and larvae of Anopheles stephensi and precipitation, max temperature and mean temperature, both with simple and multiple generalized estimating equations analysis (P<0.05). But when analysis was done with one month lag, only relationship between monthly density of adults and larvae of Anopheles stephensi and max temperature was significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study provides a basis for developing multivariate time series models, which can be used to develop improved appropriate epidemic prediction systems for these areas. Long-term entomological study in the studied sites by expert teams is recommended to compare the abundance of malaria vectors in the different areas and their association with climatic variables. Abbasi Madineh 1 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran; Infectious and Tropical Diseases Research Center,Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz Rahimi Foroushani Abbas 2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Jafari-Koshki Tohid 3 Molecular Medicine Research Center; Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz Pakdad Kamran 4 Department of Parasitology & Mycology, Paramedical School, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Vatandoost Hassan 5 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad 6 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran WHO. Malaria report 2019. Geneva: WHO; 2019. 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ABSTRACT
To determine the spatial distribution and infection rate of sand flies as vectors of Leishmania parasite in Ardabil province, northwest of Iran. Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study. The sand flies were collected from 30 areas in all 10 districts of Ardabil province during 2017. The specimens were caught using the sticky traps. The head and genitalia of sand flies were separated and mounted in Berlese solution for microscopic identification. The Geographical Information System ArcMap10.4.1 software was used to provide the spatial maps. Results: A total of 2 794 sand flies specimens were collected and 22 species of sand flies were identified from the two genera: Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia from Ardabil province. The highest frequency was found in Phlebotomus papatasi (23.7%) followed by Phlebotomus kandelakii (13.0%). The promastigote form of Leishmania infantum parasite has been reported from the three main vectors of visceral leishmaniasis (Phlebotomus kandelakii, Phlebotomus perfiliewi and Phlebotomus tobbi) from Ardabil province, where the spatial distribution map of these visceral leishmaniasis vectors was prepared. Some important species of sand flies such as Phlebotomus kandelakii, Phlebotomus perfiliewi and Phlebotomus tobbi were reported and identified as main and probable vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Ardabil. Conclusions: According to the Geographic Information System based maps, the frequency of the sand flies as leishmaniasis vectors, the leishmania parasite infection rate and the prevalence of the disease in the central areas of Ardabil province are higher than in other areas in Ardabil province.